Sunday, November 18, 2007

BYU-Utah Preview


I want to get in my early BYU-Utah prediction after yesterday's games. I saw BYU entered the rankings this week (generally #23) after 6 straight wins. Interestingly enough I don't necessarily think we should be ranked even after all these wins. Is my BYU fandom slipping? Like I said in my earlier post I just don't have the enthusiasm for this year that I've had every other year of my life. My expectations going into the season were actually very low; the fact that we will win the conference (come on we are going to beat San Diego State regardless of the U outcome) is definitely a surprise and promising for the future considering our entire offense will be back next year. I figured this to be a building year but obviously we've had success anyways. Max Hall is a developing quarterback and luckily we've had a decent defense and a good running game with Unga to bail him out of his growing pains.


Here's my point: BYU has at most 1 quality win this entire year which I count as TCU. TCU isn't even very good this year but I feel they are better than their record reflects. We should've beat UCLA (I blame the entire loss on Bronco choosing to receive after winning the flip instead of kicking) and I blame Tulsa purely on hangover from the UCLA loss. Otherwise we've played arguably weak competition and they've played good enough to win but not dominate anyone. It's especially hard to deal with the losses this year considering if we had beat those two teams we'd probably be going to a BCS bowl considering the amount of upsets and shakeups in the rankings this year.


On to Utah: Utah in my mind has 1 quality loss this year which I count as Air Force. They were playing excellent against Oregon State before Asiata and Brian Johnson went down and I personally think if moron Whittingham had started Johnson at the beginning of the UNLV game instead of bringing him in at the half they would've taken care of that game as well. Air Force simply outplayed them in the loss and no excuses on the QB issue since Johnson wasn't available and the worthless Tommy Grady knew he was the man all week (if he can beat UCLA why can't he beat Air Force?).


BYU-Utah: So after reviewing the seasons I pretty much think BYU has by far the better coach (excepting his one mistake at UCLA) but actually less talent this year. Our talent is young and will become much better to the point I think we can make a BCS run in the next couple years with Hall, Unga, Pitta, Collie, et al; however, the U's talent this year especially Brian Johnson is better and they have been putting people away unlike BYU. BYU has "home" field advantage which is pretty much worthless in this game for either team since so many of both fans are at the game. I'm calling this game purely on who gets the ball first because I see it playing out like UCLA. If the U gets the ball first, BYU stops them and we get the ball with good field position and the ball at the half which equals a win for us. If we get the ball first and get stuffed 3 and out it's the U's game. Either way I predict the classic 34-31 victory. Let's pray the U loses the toss and BYU defers.


Post note: I know I questioned my BYU fandom above but any missionaries out there looking to convert me to the U (read: Brad Ball) can count the number of "we" references in this post and know that it just won't happen. :)

3 comments:

The Balls said...

Here's my theory! You are not a normal person right now!!! You are sleep deprived workaholic maniac and so you simply can't think clearly enough to be a big fan this year! Trust me the fandom of everything has slipped, but hey I guess there is always next year and ofcourse the inevitable "someday!"
-Beloved

The Balls said...

By the way I LOVE YOU! Hang in there, you'll make it!

Brad said...

Wow... a BYU fan with some realism... very rare indeed. I'll assume this is because of your superior bloodline. Most BYU fans are still stuck in 1984! Nevertheless... here's my take...

I speak in very logical terms when I say that UTAH FANS have better PAY OFFS then BYU fans. Even during mediocre years... Utah finds a way to beat BCS opponents, defeat rivals, and win bowl games. Case in point... 2005... BYU had a very good year... until Utah beat them in Provo, then went on to beat Georgia Tech in a bowl game. Meanwhile, BYU went on to lose to Cal in the Vegas bowl. An otherwise good year for BYU turned out mediocre and an otherwise bad year for Utah turned out good.

Year and and Year out it's been better to be a UTAH FAN over the past 15 years... say what you want about Whittingham... I've had my gripes with him as well (he's definetely no Urban Meyer) but his defenses have ALWAYS been physical and tough. Plus... Kyle finds a way to win the BIG games.... at the end of the day... I would rather finish a season 8-4 with a win over my rival, a win over a top 15 team, and a bowl game victory... rather than finish 10-2 with a loss to my rival, a bowl game loss... and a bunch of meaningless wins over pansie schools (i.e. Boise State).

Saturday should be an exceptional game... I look forwards to cheering on the Utes as I sit in the midst of the BYU student section with my MBA buddies! PREDICTION: As good as Unga and the other BYU running backs are...and they are very good!!! I don't think they'll have a whole lot of success running on Utah's Defensive Line. The Ute defense is playing like a top 10 team right now... and I think you hit it on the head... they've got A LOT of talent... most of these guys were recruited during Urban Myer's run and they are just now living up the their hype. The interesting show down should be the BYU defense vs. Utah offense. Utah's offense has stalled at certain time this year. Meanwhile... I still hold the theory that BYU will NEVER have a truly superior defense because the honor code gives them such a disadvantage recruiting speed (nobody will say it.. but I will).

At the end of the day... Utah gets the edge for two reasons... 1) Superior special teams 2)Utah seems to get up for this game a little more than BYU... and they will typically open up the playbook a little more as well... using the circus defense and some unconventional offensive plays (think about Eric Weddle's touchdown pass last year)... I think Ludwig will pull off a few trick plays this weekend. At the end of the day I see Utah winning 27-21. Max Hall will have at least 2 turnovers.